By Giuseppe Richeri (Università Svizzera Italiana, Lugano, ch ) & Daniele Doglio



Download 108.89 Kb.
Date03.05.2017
Size108.89 Kb.
#17061




IIC Annual Conference - Plenary Session 1: Broadband & Development
Some figures and thoughts from the Mediterranean Region
By Giuseppe Richeri (Università Svizzera Italiana, Lugano, CH )

&

Daniele Doglio (Vivaldi Communications, Incisa, Italy)
The role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is unanimously recognized as important in promoting human development, fighting poverty, spreading knowledge and improving healthcare.

Using Telecommunications to implement development aims must mean broadening universal access to extend opportunities for interchange within each country, between countries of the same region and finally between all countries internationally.

This short paper argues that traditional infrastructure gaps (e.g. low tele-densities) and new potentially dividing factors that come along with mobile communications conspire to make the Broadband & Development equation difficult to solve.

The considerations that follow are based on data that Vivaldi Communications extrapolated from a survey on the Mediterranean Region run in 2001 by Professor Giuseppe Richeri (School of Communications, Università della Svizzera Italiana in Lugano) and others, on commission from ISPI (Istituto Studi Politica Internazionale) of Milano.


1 - The Mediterranean region in the world’s international traffic

Just to place it in context, with a population of 421 million and 118,8 million of main telephone lines, the Mediterranean Region generated 12.7% (13.7 billion minutes) of the world’s international traffic (107,8 billion minutes) in 1999 (latest available data). In this region international traffic is highly concentrated:

  • the three most industrialized countries in the area (France, Italy, Spain) with 37% of the population have 64.8% of the main lines (a tele-density of 49.5 lines per 100 inhabitants) and together generate 79% of international traffic

  • the five countries of the southern shore (Algeria, Egypt, Libia, Morocco and Tunisia) with 33.4% of the population have 7.7% of the main telephone lines (a tele-density of 6.5 lines per 100 inhabitants) and together generate 4.8% of international traffic.

  • the four countries of the eastern shore (Siria, Lebanon, Israel and Palestina) with 6.7% of the population have 5% of the main phone lines (a tele-density of 21 lines per 100 inhabitants) and together generate 7.6% of international traffic.


Main flows of international traffic generated and directed within the area concentrate around:

  • a North-North axis, absorbing 50% of international traffic that concerns the three more developed countries: France, Italy, Spain

  • a North-South axis, absorbing 30% of international traffic, that concerns the same three countries and the Maghreb area (Algeria,Tunisia, Morocco) where France plays a pivotal role

  • a North-North axis that takes care of most of the traffic left and involves Greece,Turkey and Albania with Italy and France


Main flows depend on economic factors (economies’ size and trade relationships) and social-cultural factors (emigrants, language).They show how small is the international traffic generated from the northern african countries toward the others (South-North axis) and how little is the sub-regional interchange (South-South axis), and in this respect can be considered as symptoms of “divide”.


2 –The Telecom Divide in the Mediterranean Region

Evidence of the traditional TLC Divide in the Mediterranean Region is further shown by figures confronting essential telecom indicators in three developed nations (France, Italy, Spain ) with four less developed ones (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) as shown in Tables 1-5.


Table 1 – Tele-density (Lines x 100 inhabitants) - 2001

Countries

Tele-density

Algeria

6.04

Morocco

3.92

Egypt

10.30

Tunisia

10.89

France

57.35

Italy

47.06

Spain

43.11

Source: World Telecommunication Indicators, 2001/2002

In terms of number of households with a fixed phone the selected Mediterranean countries can be grouped in three lots (Table 1): France, Italy and Spain (more than 40 lines per 100 inhabitants) belong to one; Tunisia and Egypt, just about over 10 lines, to another; Morocco and Algeria, with less than 10 lines to the third.


Table 2- Public phone accessibility - 2000

Countries



Public Pay Phones x 1000 inhabitants


Algeria

0.16

Egypt

0.35

Morocco

1.65

Tunisia

2.04

France

3.92

Italy

6.32

Spain

1.67

ITU World Telecommunication Report, 2001/2002.

The number of public phones is a measure of accessibility to the phone service even for people who have no private connection. Table 2 shows that a low tele-density correlates with a limited diffusion of public phones, the only exception being Spain whose 1.67 is lower than Tunisia’s 2.04


Table 3 - Telephone’ subscription cost as a % of GDP per capita - 2000

Countries


Telephone Subscriptions as % of GDP pc

Algeria

2.5

Egypt

0.9

Morocco

6.3

Tunisia

1.2

France

0.6

Italy

0.7

Spain

0.9

ITU World Telecommunication Report, 2001/2002.

Penetration and use of Telecom services depend on how much they cost in relation to available average income for each country. Measuring the cost of private phone subscription against gross domestic product per capita Table 3 shows that a lower tele-density can be the consequence of high fixed costs for connection and service, as in Morocco, where the subscription fee is 6.3% of GDP pc, followed by Algeria (2.5%).

In all three developed countries with high tele-density rates this ratio is lower than 1% of GDP pc.

Table 4 - Growth of Main Telephone lines per 100 inhabitants 1995-2001

Countries

Phone lines CAGR (%)

Algeria

6.6

Egypt

14.1

Marocco

-1.3

Tunisia

11.0

France

0.4

Italy

1.4

Spain

1.9

ITU World Telecommunication Report, 1999/2000 and 2001/2002.

Growth of fixed phone lines in the 1995-2001 period shows the degree of attention and resources that this sector is able to attract. A low annual growth rate (less than 2%) in all the countries with a high tele-density identifies a situation close to virtual saturation. Worth noting is that while some countries like Egypt (+14.1%) and Tunisia (+11.0%) have shown considerable growth in the period, others like Algeria (6.6%) have grown very little, while Morocco’s has actually less fixed lines per 100 inhabitants now than it used to, following accelerated investments in mobile telephony networks that were conceived from start as an alternative, and not as a complement to fixed lines.


Table 5- Investments in Tlc networks & revenues ($ per inhabitants) in the year 2000

Countries

Tlc Investments ($)

Total revenues ($)

Algeria

3.8

9.9

Egypt

8.1

43.0

Morocco

8.5

39.8

Tunisia

16.8

41.8

France

55.7

470.8

Italy

150.8

590.8

Spain

55.8

406.6

ITU World Telecommunication Report, 2001/2002.

Table 5 shows how many $ per capita each country has invested in 2000 to update and develop its Tlc lines (first column) and how many $ per capita of revenues telecom services have produced (second column).

Worth noting that while the three developed countries maintain a high level of investments (with Italy’s nearly three times larger than the other two), in the less developed countries this level is low (from 3.1 to 8.5 $ pc) with the notable exception of Tunisia (16.8 $). As for revenues the average of the northern African countries with the negative exception of Algeria ($ 9.9) sits around $ 40.9, i.e. less than one-tenth of the other three ($489.4).

3- How many years to fill the gap ?

Confronting the average development trends in telecommunications for the 1995-1999 period Vivaldi developed an Index showing how many years it would take for each of the less developed countries to reach the average tele-density of the more developed ones (should it maintain that same pace of development).



Table 6

Countries





Tele-Density 1999



France

57.35

Italy

47.06

Spain

43.11

Vivaldi’s on ITU World Telecommunication Report, 1999/2000

The tele-density for France, Italy and Spain was conventionally calculated at 49.1 main phone lines per 100 inhabitants (Table 6), and consequently the Vivaldi Index was calculated as in Table 7
Table 7

Countries





Nr. Of Years needed to reach a Tele-density of 49.1

keeping the 1995-1999 development rate




Tunisia

15.6

Algeria

38.5

Egypt

15.8

Morocco

46.6

Vivaldi’s on ITU World Telecommunication Report, 1999/2000
Based on this Index the “divide” appears in all its width.It would take Morocco 46.6 years and Algeria 38.5 years to fill the gap .
As we shall see in the following paragraph these figures change when mobile telephony is brought into the picture, but fixed lines Tele-density remains an important element to consider not only because it has been a traditional measure correlated with factors such as average disposable income, education level, investment level, electrification,etc. but also because fixed lines networks continue to play a key role in the digital world, at least for the present time, and in a broadband perspective.

4- The positive impact of mobile and Tlc reforms in the area
According to the ITU latest Report in the 1999-2001 period the “link” that was “missing” was finally found, all over the world, in “mobile telephony”.

A mix of liberalization policies and telecom reforms propelled mobile telephony also in the Mediterranean region. Table 8 shows mobile telephony penetration in the chosen countries as of 2001 .Worth noting is not so much the obvious distance between developed countries with a mobile density over 60.0 (Italy at the top with nearly 84.0), and less developed ones with densities below 5.0 for Egypt and Tunisia (Algeria at the bottom with 0.3), but the sudden leap of Morocco that reached 15.6 mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants in 2001.


Table 8

Countries

Mobile Subscribers x 100 inhabit - 2001



Algeria

0.3

Egypt

4.3

Morocco

15.6

Tunisia

4.01

France

60.5

Italy

83.9

Spain

65.5

ITU World Telecommunication Report, 2001/2002.

Growth rates for mobile telephony in the selected countries of the Mediterranean region have been very high (Table 9) proving that the potential for expansion of this service is still strong, both in countries with high levels of fixed lines tele-density, and in countries where private phones are still unusual-a sight in most households.


Table 9

Countries


% growth of mobile subscribers '95-'01 CAGR (%)

Algeria

66.5

Egitto

169.0

Marocco

133.4

Tunisia

122.8

France

73.88

Italy

52.2

Spain

74.3

ITU World Telecommunication Report, 2001/2002.

The figure for the less developed countries (including Algeria this time) shows that mobile telephony is seen as an alternative and not as a complementary service to fixed lines.


These developments project new figures of total (fixed+mobile) tele-density (Table 10).
Consequently, while it will still take very many years to fill the gap in fixed lines (Table 1 and Table 4), the gap can be reduced faster in mobile (Table 8 and Table 9).


Table 10 – Total Teledensity

Fixed Mobile Total Teledensity

Northern Africa

ALGERIA 6.0 0.3 6.3

EGITTO 10.3 4.3 14.6

TUNISIA 10.8 4.0 14.8

MOROCCO 3.9 15.7 19.6

Europe


FRANCE 57.3 60.5 117.8

ITALY 47.0 83.9 130.9

SPAIN 43.1 65.5 108.6

GREECE 52.9 74.1 127.0

ISRAELE 47.6 80.8 128.4
* Total Tele-density (Fixed + Mobile x 100 inhabitants) in 2001

Vivaldi’s on ITU World Telecommunication Report, 1999/2000 and 2001/2002.


With mobile communication the crossover point (i.e. the moment when a country has more mobile users than fixed lines) can come at almost any point in the development ladder. The ability of a country to develop its mobile network to the point when it overtakes the fixed line network is no more a simple function of its wealth, nor of geography, since every region in the world has a number of countries where mobile has already overtaken fixed lines, as reported in the latest ITU Report. The critical factors appear to include:

  • relative market structure (degree of competition between mobile operators)

  • relative billing systems (CCP calling party pays vs. RPP receiving party pays)

  • relative tariff structures (free local calls, high cost long distance calls etc.)

  • cultural factors (mobile takes off faster in countries that have a younger, more urbanized population and more commuters…but also by becoming a fashionable “must” like in Italy)

Morocco again seems to prove the case

The poorest country in the area, Morocco took advantage of the opening up of the market in Northern Africa with a series of market liberalization moves which have moved it in less than three years from the lowest telephone access levels to its highest. These included :



  1. licensing a second mobile operator (MèdiTelecom) that six months after launch reached 755.000 customers and covered 70% of Morocco’s population

  2. selling 35% of the incumbent operator MarocTelecom to France’s Vivendi who invested U$ 275 million to build its own network and from a base of 369.000 subscribers at the end of 1999 reached one million clients in June 2000, two million in November 2000 and three million in May 2001

  3. encouraging both to speed up their network building to recoup the high cost of the license ($ 920 mil)

  4. keeping the prices reasonably low (a prepaid package, including a handset, can cost $ 36, roughly 2,6% of the average income, while recharge cards sell for as little as U$ 4,44 for 10 minutes of peak time conversation)

Other factors helped speed up the process such as the

  1. the relative high cost of fixed line tariffs that encouraged jumping to mobile (in fact FL subscribers declined in 2001)

  2. the fact that Morocco has the most independent Regulator in Northern Africa which inspired confidence to investors

Now some 95% of Morocco’s population is covered by a mobile signal. By contrast:




  1. Egypt’s incumbent sold off its mobile network

  2. Algeria auctioned a second mobile license in 2001 following Morocco’s example

  3. Tunisia, unsatisfied with bids it received ha put the process on hold

Similar concepts apply to Botswana that has improved its total tele-density rank form 129th in 1990 to 91st in 2000 by expanding the mobile network.



5 - The new Divide is Digital & Broadband divide
Measured in conventional terms such as tele-density the gap has notoriously narrowed. Africa has now more than twice as many telephone connections as Tokyo and the developing world accounts for 43% of all fixed telephone lines (against 12% in 1982).

While the Maitland Report pointed to the fact that lack of telecommunication infrastructure (low tele-density = poor access to telephones) impeded economic growth, today basic access must take into account also the differences in Internet access, which is less equally distributed than telephone’s for reasons which are economic but also based on socio-cultural factors such as education, gender, location, age.

And still, 85% of the world population living in developing world makes up for only 25% of the world’s Internet users and represents only 35% of mobile users.
Table 11 – Internet Penetration in year 2000




Countries

Internet Users x 10.000 inhab




Algeria

19.27




Egitto

92.95




Marocco

131.45




Tunisia

377.22




France

2' 637.72




Italy

2’ 757.76




Spain

1’ 827.45

ITU World Telecommunication Report, 2001/2002.
Figures on Internet penetration in the Mediterranean region are relatively interesting because they refer to the year 2000 while Internet has continued to grow constantly in the past two years.

Nevertheless Table 11 shows once again how big the divide is, with the partial exception of Tunisia, in a segment where providing access to low cost information&knowledge services could be particularly beneficial for low-income countries .


The ITU 2002 Report admits that while a divide in basic access is still with us, there is an even larger quality divide affecting users’ ICT experience, one measure of which is bandwidth,i.e. the width of the digital highway measured in bits per second. Three figures stress the point:

  1. In terms of distribution of international internet bandwidth in Africa, Northern Africa with 40% of the population has about 40% of the bandwidth (South Africa with less than 5% of the population has 40% of the bandwidth), but SubSaharian Africa with nearly 80% of the population has less than 20% of the bandwidth..

  2. In terms of international internet bandwidth, the 400.000 citizens of Luxembourg between them have more International Internet Bandwidth than Africa’s 760 million citizens

  3. In terms of bandwidth requirements a typical Internet user (30 hours per month at 56 kbit(s downstream, 4 kbit/s upstream) needs already 18 times more bandwidth per month than a typical telephone user (6 hours per month at 8 kbit/s duplex). And the needs of the former are likely to increase with websites offering streaming media and multimedia……

Both the “missing link” and the “digital divide” show a direct correlation between access to tlc, economic wealth and social development. Yet the technologies of the “digital divide” have a greater potential impact than plain old telephone lines of twenty years ago and the Internet has the potential to allow developing countries to leapfrog into the information age.

But the main method to access the Internet is still dial-up, which means that consequently the old plain telephone line continues to play a critical role, also in the implementation of TLC for Development.

Broadband technologies (DSL and cable modems) used to increase the speed of conventional copper wires can be even cheaper to use than traditional dial-up. But again in most cases you still need fixed lines, i.e. a high fixed lines tele-density is still a necessity, while we have seen that growth in fixed lines infrastructure is slow and in some cases (Morocco again) slowing down to the point of almost stopping and giving in to mobile, whose applicability to broadband has still some problems to face.

For how long ? Technology has promised to solve in a few years the problems that don’t allow to make full use of mobile for broadband communications, but when will this happen for true ? And even when it happens will mobile really be able to substitute fixed lines for sophisticated services ?

6- Final considerations
Everybody agrees that tackling the digital divide won’t be easy. For TLC to become agents of socio-economical development there must be:


  • networks (fixed and mobile)

  • low access costs (subscription, tariffs, mobile packages)

  • a social economic context that is able to express a demand for communicating at a distance

  • policies to harness ICT’s to improve the livelihoods of local communities, incubating developing nation dot.coms and facilitating international connectivity to the Internet

There are questions to be answered:




  1. Is more infrastructure (supply side) needed ?

The “fiber optic option” is far too expensive to implement, and in some countries a lack of awareness or even language issues are bigger barriers to ICT use than infrastructure


  1. Can Mobile be a suitable alternative for broadband ? The UMTS solution is “technically” realistic (although not ready yet) but

    • There are still technological limitations in broadband applications that need to be solved

    • Conditions to allow development of mobile broadband are already critical in the developed world (see the UMTS saga in Europe where Tlc companies are still looking for killer applications, mostly in the ”pay for-content” ). How can they be implemented in the TDB countries ? Is ARPU a suitable parameter for development purposes ?

    • There are “cultural” limitations, as mobile goes well with young, urban, commuting-intense populations while many less developed countries have populations which are young but not necessarily urban and mobile, creating the potential for a new “internal” divide.

    • There are structural limitations, as mobile did not change for instance the direction of the communication flows in the countries we studied that are still dominated by a North-North and a North-South configuration instead of the South-South configuration that would be needed to provide a realistic basis for development



  1. And once the infrastructure problem is solved, the experience in the North countries so far proves that development is drawn by “content” that is exchanged on the networks. Will the South countries be able to produce their own content ? Or will the new networks cause a new dependance on contents coming from the north ?




  1. Is market liberalization enough ? Many countries have opened up their ICT sector but competitive markets have often failed to meet the needs of the marginalized groups. Appropriate universal access policies to ICT’s are needed but may not be economically viable when measured in pure accounting terms.




  1. Can developing countries absorb ICT’s beyond their level of economic development ?

This is another critical issue which bears toward the concept of sustainability.
5- Are present international policies like the UN ICT TaskForce, or the G8 Digital Opportunity TaskForce, or the Digital Opportunity Initiative effectively working toward solutions that almost certainly require, as the ITU indicates, a 3-side pact between governments, development agencies and the private sector ?

Download 108.89 Kb.

Share with your friends:




The database is protected by copyright ©ua.originaldll.com 2024
send message

    Main page